Economic forecast: below-average growth in 2026
Bern, 18.03.2026 — The Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles has revised slightly downwards its forecast for economic growth in Switzerland. For 2026, it forecasts below-average growth of 1.0%, followed by 1.7% in 2027 (forecast from December 2025: 1.1% and 1.7% respectively). The war in the Middle East is driving up energy prices and further increasing uncertainty.
Switzerland’s GDP rose by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, after a contraction of 0.4% in the previous quarter. Overall economic development thus stabilised at the end of the year. Available data and surveys indicate that GDP will continue to grow in the current first quarter.
The war in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in international energy prices since the end of February. This is dampening the international economic outlook and is expected to result in higher inflation rates, including in European and Asian trading partner countries. There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding the further development of the conflict in the Middle East and its economic impact.
Against this backdrop, the Expert Group is raising its technical assumption for average oil prices in the current and coming year. Based on this, inflation in 2026 is expected to be slightly higher than previously anticipated (0.4%; December forecast: 0.2%) along with slightly weaker momentum in private consumption. In addition, subdued growth in global demand and the high value of the Swiss franc are slowing down exposed sectors of the export economy. This, in turn, is weighing on investment activity. Overall, the Expert Group has slightly lowered its growth forecast for Switzerland. For 2026, it expects Swiss GDP growth to be below average at 1.0% (December forecast: 1.1%).
In 2027, growth in the Swiss economy is expected to accelerate to 1.7%, with average annual inflation of 0.5% (unchanged forecasts). Global demand should accelerate moderately. Other European countries, particularly Germany, are likely to gradually recover from their current slump, which will also support the Swiss economy. Increasing utilisation of production capacities is causing investment momentum to pick up moderately.
The economic situation is reflected in the labour market. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to an annual average of 3.0% in 2026 and only fall back to an average of 2.8% in 2027. The slight downward revision compared with the December forecast (3.1% and 2.9% respectively) is mainly due to the somewhat more favourable development at the end of 2025.
Economic risks
The war in the Middle East led to increases in international oil and gas prices since the end of February; market developments are highly volatile. The further development of the conflict is uncertain and poses risks to global economic development. For example, a prolonged disruption to the energy infrastructure or transport routes in the region could cause prices to rise further. In such a scenario, the global economy would be placed under additional strain and inflation would rise worldwide. Weaker growth and higher inflation would also be expected in Switzerland.[1]
In addition, uncertainty remains regarding international economic and trade policy. This forecast is based on the technical assumption that US import tariffs will remain at their current level. However, changes to US customs tariffs and additional customs duties are possible, for example after the current regulation in the US expires.[2]
Other economic risks also persist. Renewed corrections on the financial markets are possible. The risks associated with global debt, particularly sovereign debt, remain high. Should any of these risks materialise, further upward pressure on the Swiss franc would be expected.
[1] See the accompanying SECO scenario in the economic forecast section of ‘Konjunkturtendenzen’ for spring 2026.
[2] The current tariffs of 10% are based on Section 122 of the US Trade Act and can be maintained for a maximum of 150 days without the approval of Congress. This period will expire on 24 July.